Unemployment Rates On The Rise

What could the rising unemployment figures be telling us about the future of work?
• Unemployment is up to 5.3 per cent, the highest in four years.
• Youth unemployment has risen from 11.5 to 14.1 per cent.
• ICT roles have fallen by 4.4 per cent, including a 14 per cent drop in programmer jobs.
• Public administration roles are down 6.8 per cent.
The increases themselves are not dramatic, but the pattern they form is worth paying attention to. On the surface, these figures look like standard pressures. However, each one points to something different happening beneath the surface of the labour market.
Higher overall unemployment suggests organisations are slowing or pausing recruitment as rising costs push them to run leaner. The jump in youth unemployment reflects fewer entry points into organisations, especially as routine work is increasingly automated. The fall in ICT and programmer roles hints at early restructuring as AI becomes part of everyday digital work. And the drop in public administration aligns with what I am hearing from clients for the first time, with middle-management layers being flattened in sectors that were previously more stable.
Taken together, these figures do not just show a softening labour market. They hint at a shift in how organisations are structured, how capability is built, and where career pathways may narrow or change shape.
In the work I do with clients, I am hearing this from both sides. People are wondering what it means for their long-term career options, and leaders are wondering what it means for workload, capacity and the future design of their teams.
If the first rung of the ladder shrinks and the middle rungs narrow, the organisation chart may not just look different. It may work differently, too. When that happens, it is not only job numbers that change. It is the shape of roles, the flow of career movement, and the way organisations build capability.
This is not about inducing fear. It is about understanding what is shifting and recognising the opportunity that comes with it. People still need ways to learn, grow and feel supported, and organisations still need talent, capability and resilience.
If the old pathways may not return, what would you build in their place?
If these trends are making you wonder about the security of your role or department, contact Patricia to clarify how you can support yourself to stay career-agile.